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However multiple polls showing very large leads for Sharkie are enough evidence to destroy this narrative and replace it with a view that Sharkie should easily hold the seat. This article will be updated up til polling day with I may do similar posts for some of the other seats, but if so that will probably be only after credible polling is conducted. The correct use of publicly available seat polling seems to be not to ignore it entirely, but rather to aggregate it with other sources of information including national modelling. The high risk nature of the community has always been a concern for many. As we pulled into the car park which is situated at the back of the high street shops a large black steward directed us to park. The Tasmanian breakdown in the national aggregate of three months of Ipsos polling had Labor ahead across Tasmania but this would be off a minuscule sample size of about and Tasmanian sample pools in national polls are often wayward anyway.
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Dr Kevin Bonham

Even when multiple polls of the same seat had similar results, that result was sometimes wildly wrong. The average pattern in such seats is for a small swing to the Opposition, but there is a lot of variation, meaning that in the case of a close seat a Government win is possible, despite the history of this generally not happening. Saturday, 29 June Chameleons swingers club, 4some, 5some and a queue of men. For me this is the underground music. If you respect the mountain, you should also respect the facts.
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Neither she nor my mother have any idea of the fight Christian and I had about that. Therefore if we had a result that was not what modelling off the national polls expected, that result would be weighted more highly if it was the average of five or six different seat polls rather than just one. I've resorted to looking for thermals - just kill me now. I can only wonder what has occurred! Unfortunately it's difficult to test in the case of state elections rubbing off on federal by-elections, because there are so few federal by-elections contested by both parties these days.
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